Legal market in decline, but illicits on the rise considering the role of price differentials in driving these changes, it is taxes were lifted, and legitimate volumes continued to fall in subsequent years. These include the 2020-21 and the 2024-25 periods. In contrast, illicit volumes rose during the years when excise was raised and continued to climb the following year. Importantly, though, the introduction of higher excise rates do not In fact, the illicit market looks set to have more than doubled in size 0 However, aside from a brief recovery during 2022-23, legal market volumes have trended sharply lower. The estimated legal market size in 2025 is roughly 67% smaller than in 2019. terms of government revenues given that the duty-paying market segment continues to shrink.