Economic growth projections Average annual real GDP growth forecast, 2026-30

Despite concerns over slowing economic growth globally, growth as a top challenge shaping their outlook on Asia. Globally, economic growth is facing headwinds from geopolitical uncertainty, rising trade barriers, fiscal vulnerabilities, and financial market fragilities. IMF forecasts suggest that global growth will hold at 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025.30 remains relatively resilient. Several Asian economies are projected to outperform the global growth forecasts over the next five years, including India at 6.4%, businesses throughout 2026. Merchandise exports to Asia are projected to grow 2026-2027, based on our analysis of Treasury projections.32 Almost 80 cents ($0.77) of every dollar made from Australian merchandise exports comes from Asia, and of Australia's trade relationship with the region.33