Figure 9: Expected Direction of Central Bank Policy Rates in 2025
Reflecting investors' concerns regarding central bank policy, the Bank of Korea's (Bok) According to the survey, 96% of respondents anticipate that interest rates have peaked and will stabilize with a slight downward trend. Expectations for a mild cut of less than 50bps (40%) and a freeze (38%) constitute the dominant views. Rather than a sharp pivot, a gradual adjustment or an extension of the tightening cycle is considered more likely, given household debt risk and real estate market volatility. Considering the survey was conducted late last year, the outlook for rate cuts at that time may not have fully captured current macroeconomic variables. Recent surges in oil contributing to elevated volatility in the domestic exchange rate and interest rate path. the constraints of household debt and property market fluctuations. borrowing costs. This, in turn, could serve as a practical constraint, limiting market