FIGURE 13 Potential SAF demand scenarios in 2040 vs. current projected SAF pipeline capacity, by status and technology

half of this pipeline (22.9 Mt) may become operational - the technology breakdown may not be scaled back proportionately, both because of HEFA-scalability constraints due to used cooking oil availability and because non-HEFA pathways face bigger technology deployment challenges. Sources: HSBC analysis for Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook and BNEF. The existing SAF pipeline is dominated by HEFA. If impact on the growth of HEFA, plus volatile market construction and operation, HEFA capacity could conditions increase the urgency for additional, reach ~30 milion tonnes soon after 2030. However, demand by 2040. Improvement in UCO collection this production pathway may face constraints. A other feedstocks, where allowed by regulation, could ease some of the constraints. However, 8.6 milion tonnes per year of HEFA by 2040 would pathways. Feedstock restrictions in selected factors. For example, geographic concentration of and, consequently, the ability of projects to secure impact on emissions and land use are positive. 3.6). In addition, competition with renewable diesel aviation industry and reduce the pipeline further.