Figure 13 Global EV and ICE vehicle stock projections by vehicle category, 2024–2050
Baseline 2025 and Ambitious scenarios is the smallest. By 2050, EVs are projected to For LDVs, the EV share of the vehicle stock is projected to be around 62% by 2050 in the Baseline 2025 scenario, which is substantially higher than the 44% in the Baseline 2021 scenario, owing to significant policy developments. The Momentum scenario projects a 69% EV stock share by 2050, a lower rate of increase. Aligning with a Paris- compatible emissions trajectory requires the EV stock share to exceed 90% by 2050. share of electric HDVs. In the Baseline 2025 scenario, the projected EV stock share for HDVs reaches only 23% by 2050, only slightly higher than the Baseline 2021 scenario with the Ambitious scenario, however, requires a substantially higher share of 82%. Much like the ambition gap for sales, the discrepancy in the stock share illustrates the trajectory aligned with the Paris Agreement. THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION THEICCT.ORG