BESS Fair Values – 10y top-bottom 2 hours COD 1 Jan 2027 ($/kW-month)
This compression materially altered the storage risk profile. New tariffs on Chinese components and tighter FEoC sourcing requirements added complexity to project economics, increasing diligence burdens and uncertainty around supply chains. At the same time, revenue erosion in saturated markets forced offtakers to reassess assumptions around long-term revenue upside, further weighing on toll policy continuity, while global battery system costs continued to decline at a rapid pace over the year. Lower capex allowed developers to absorb narrower margins while maintaining competitive tolls. In parallel, 2025 marked a shift in demand, as corporates emerged as a meaningful buyer segment for helping stabilize demand even as merchant revenues weakened. As a result, battery storage remained the fastest-growing segment of the Us clean energy market despite declining toll prices. expansion phase to a mature, highly competitive environment. Merchant arbitrage values lowered to approximately 7.5 $/kW-month in ERCOT. Ancillary services became saturated, forcing developers to rely more heavily on wholesale arbitrage, a strategy that demands sophisticated dispatch and exposes facing explosive load growth from data centers and Al infrastructure. While near-term revenues weakened, long-term valuations signaled growing confidence in storage as a core reliability asset