【中信期货】2026年煤电长协解读-251211（13页）.pdf

1、重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。相关人员为客户。This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business.The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do n

2、ot constitute investment advice to anyone.CITIC Futures will not consider relevant personnel as customers due to their attention,receipt,or reading of this report.Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License 2012 No.669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究中信期货国际化研究|CITIC Futures Internati

3、onal Research 2025-12-11 Coal-Power Long-Term Contract Interpretation 2026 年煤电长协解读年煤电长协解读 Abstract 摘要摘要 Attaching greater importance to the substitution effect of new energy for thermal power,the 2026 medium and long-term contracts(MLTCs)emphasize the supply guarantee positioning of long-term agreem

4、ents.The main impacts of the detailed rule revisions are reflected in two aspects:first,strengthening the assessment of the fulfillment rate and performance of long-term agreements;second,clarifying the pricing mechanism for production-area medium and long-term contracts,which helps to smooth price

5、fluctuations in production areas.In addition,there are no major changes to the pricing mechanism,required contracted volume,or performance ratio.The first mention of new energy reflects attention to the growing trend of new energy power generation substituting coal-fired power.Looking ahead,the fund

6、amental supply-demand balance of thermal coal is gradually shifting from a loose state to a balanced one.In 2026,the upward elasticity of coal supply is expected to be limited,while the demand side has not yet peaked and still has room for growth.The price center may move up to the range of 700-900