汇丰：蜜雪集团（2097.HK）-港股公司深度报告：低端茶饮龙头估值已趋合理 供应链优势巩固市场地位-250625（英文版）（29页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Research at:https:/ HSBCinExtelSurvey

2、2025|ThankyouforyoursupportSeeresults Mixues end-to-end supply chain can further solidify its leading position in the low-priced segment We estimate a revenue and net profit CAGR of 17.5%and 17.4%over 2024-27e Initiate at Hold with a DCF-based target price of HKD544.10,implying a 32.7x 2026e PE mult

3、iple The No 1:Mixue,the worlds largest fast-food chain by store count,leads the freshly-made tea beverage industry in China with a value share of 22.7%.In 2024,its store count reached 46,479(41,584 in China;4,895 overseas).The industry is booming in China but remains highly fragmented and entry barr

4、iers are low.In our sector report,In search of Chinas Starbucks for tea drinkers,we highlighted two ways to differentiate strategies:become the cost leader in the low-priced category or specialise in one product in the mid-priced segment.To us,Mixue has emerged as the winner in the first category an

5、d Guming(1364 HK,HKD25.10,Buy)the second.Mixues menu items are generally priced around RMB7 per cup and its end-to-end supply chain helps franchisees to penetrate lower tier cities.The large network of stores supports the companys cost leadership and its self-created IP character,Snow King,has incre

6、ased Mixues marketing and brand strength.Valuation looks stretched:The share price has risen sharply and the stock trades at a 25.7x 2027e PE multiple versus our estimated revenue and net profit CAGR of 17.5%and 17.4%over 2024-27e.We project that Mixues store count will reach 69,239 in 2027e and our