汇丰：Robotaxi行业：自动驾驶商业化临近但盈利道阻且长-250714（英文版）（41页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Research at:https:/ Listen to our insightsFind out moreHSBCGlobal InvestmentR

2、esearchPodcasts As vehicles transition to the next level of autonomous driving,robotaxis are on the cusp of becoming more widespread Given regulatory and societal acceptance challenges,we think the path to mass adoption will be gradual Wallet share limitations and requisite fleet infrastructure lead

3、 us to conclude returns expectations are widely exaggerated Robotaxis are not coming,they are already here:Despite suggestions of regulatory hurdles,Waymo is operating over 250k rides per week whilst operating in roughly five US cities.A move to end-to-end AI learning(rather than rules-based program

4、ming)has vastly accelerated the pace at which autonomous driving is evolving.At the same time,the cost of the requisite technology in terms of sensor set has reduced significantly.Together these developments have allowed first movers such as Waymo and Baidu to gain momentum,but they have also driven

5、 a resurgence in the number of companies working in the space.That bodes well for technological resilience,but less so for profitability.Beyond the hype,robotaxis are likely to be loss-leaders initially:the prospect of driverless cars may be exciting,but we believe the economics are misunderstood.Th

6、e simple calculation is a drivers wage represents c70%of the cost in a regular cab,so therefore a robotaxi should be materially more profitable even if the fares are somewhat lower.Our modelling suggests the contrary remote supervisors,parking/charging/cleaning and infrastructure costs,plus the incr