Lazard ：2025年全球经济展望报告（英文版）（18页）.pdf

1、Global Outlook 2025Ronald TempleChief Market StrategistGlobal Outlook 20252In 2025,investors will need to question many long-held assumptions about the global economic and investing landscape.After decades of globalization,multilateralism,and relative geopolitical stability,the outlook has shifted.I

2、n developed economy elections around the world in 2024from France to the United Kingdom to Japan to the United Statesvoters demanded change,as the lingering squeeze from prior years inflation ignited a desire to punish incumbents.In each country,the circumstances beyond inflation differ and the poli

3、cy consequences will diverge.But change is in the air,with meaningful economic and market implications across each major economy.In the United States,significant policy changes could materially affect global growth,US inflation,and corporate profitability.China will be at the center of the storm and

4、 is likely to respond to US protectionism with asymmetrical retaliatory measures and substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus.The Eurozone is likely to be tested by US trade policy,fiscal pressure from higher defense spending,and the potential security threat from an emboldened Russia.Japan will str

5、uggle to balance the benefits of positive inflation against voter anger over cost-of-living increases and the desire to stabilize the yen.The geopolitical backdrop is likely to shift meaningfully as the United States retrenches from multilateralism and diminishes its commitments to mutual defense tr

6、eaty partners.The changing global backdrop could significantly affect prices across asset classes,with elevated dispersion within them.Investors will therefore need to reevaluate likely winners and losers across countries,sectors,and companies.Assumptions OverboardGlobal Outlook 20253United StatesHi