汇丰HSBC：中国电力设备行业研究：中国燃气轮机如何扬帆出海-260306（英文版）（18页）.pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/ Dongfa

2、ngs gas turbine is breaking into Canadian data center market,thanks to supply shortage amid AI investment boom Quantify upside Our bull case(similar ASP/margin/multiple vs GEV)shows just 30%share price upside for Dongfang-H Lift TPs;Prefer Harbin over Dongfang for better risk/reward and key catalyst

3、 ahead;Downgrade Dongfang-A to Hold Dongfang penetrates North America:Dongfang Electrics proprietary gas turbine products continued to make breakthrough in overseas markets:on top of an order for 5 gas turbine units from Middle Asia in 2H25,it received a deposit for 10 units from data center custome

4、rs in Canada in recent weeks.Dongfang now targets total new orders of 15 units for 2026.Such progress is faster than the companys initial expectation,thanks to the supply shortage globally amid AI investment boom.Lift estimates/TPs for Dongfang for this new opportunity In this report,we run a scenar

5、io analysis for the earnings and valuation of the gas turbine export opportunity for Dongfang.Our medium-term base case for 2028 suggests net profit of RMB800m for the business,representing 16%of our full-year 2026e net profit.Applying a 40 x PE(at a discount to global gas turbine leaders average of

6、 50 x),we derive a segment valuation of RMB32bn.Factoring in this to our model,we derive our new SOTP-based TP of HKD48/RMB41 for H/A shares.With 7%upside and 3%downside respectively,we maintain Buy on Dongfang-H,but downgrade A-shares to Hold.but valuation getting stretched:Dongfang H/A rallied 74%