睿咨得能源：2026中东冲突：对市场与供应链的影响研究报告（英文版）（28页）.pdf

1、Special report:Middle East conflict2Table of contents03Middle East escalation disrupts global gas supply yet this is not 202206Nearly 10%of mainstream oil tankers are trapped west of Strait of Hormuz10Middle East conflict could hit regions offshore oil and gas activity19Thought experiment:$100 oil a

2、nd a search for supply outside the Middle East16Labor availability constrained following Middle East attacks Special report:Middle East conflictThe expected jumpy initial reaction of natural gas prices to the escalation in the Middle East continues to evoke memories of the Russian supply shock in 20

3、22.Still,despite strong gains of more than 40%at the European benchmark Title Transfer Facility(TTF)on 2 March,Rystad Energy expects the current supply shock to follow a different playbook and prove less consequential for global gas and liquefied natural gas(LNG)markets than the earlier jolt.Hence,w

4、e do not expect prices to hit the highs seen in 2022.Our assessment is anchored in the expectation that the disruption will be temporary and consequently manageable in volume.QatarEnergy halts productionMaritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had already stalled when QatarEnergy halted LNG pro

5、duction following a drone strike on its gas facilities in Ras Laffan on 2 March.The stop,without an announced end date,affects Qatars entire liquefaction capacity of 77 million tonnes per annum(Mtpa)currently.While the events certainly cloud Qatars medium-term outlook,the LNG powerhouse is set to ne

6、arly double its capacity to 142 Mtpa within the next decade by adding 64 Mtpa across three expansion phases North Field East(32 Mtpa),North Field South(16 Mtpa)and North Field West(16 Mtpa).NFEs first train is expected online in 3Q26,barring infrastructure damage or continued shipping difficulties.N