Hinrich Foundation：2026特朗普效应：美国与中国如何驱动“亚洲工厂”的外商直接投资演变研究报告（英文版）（28页）.pdf

1、BY THANG NGUYEN-QUOC,PhD,AND THENG THENG TANThe Trump Effect:How the US and China are driving Factory Asias FDI evolutionHINRICH-IMD SUSTAINABLE TRADE INDEX 2025 DEEP DIVE2HINRICH FOUNDATION REPORT THE TRUMP EFFECT:HOW THE US AND CHINA ARE DRIVING FACTORY ASIAS FDI EVOLUTIONBy Oxford EconomicsConten

2、tsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 31.THE SURPRISING RESILIENCE OF ASIAS FDI UNDER TRUMP 2.0 51.1AsiasFDIinflowssurvivedhigherUStariffexposure5 1.2ChineseMNEskeptexpandingabroadwhileothersretrenched7 2.THE NEW FACTORY ASIA RESHAPING ASIAS FDI 8 2.1FactoryAsiastarteditsevolutionpriortoTrump2.08 2.2FDIrelocatingouto

3、fChinastayedwithinAsia9 2.3ChinaovertookthetopspotasAsiasregionalFDIsource113.VIMI:THE NEW HOTSPOTS 13 3.1AsiasFDIhotspots13 3.2ThediversityofFDImodelsinVIMI144.WHATS NEXT FOR ASIAS FDI?19 4.1ChinasrecentgrowthinoutboundFDIwillcontinue19 4.2Domesticregulationstobecomekeybattlegrounds214.3Export-plat

4、formFDImodeltoevolve22 CONCLUSION 24APPENDIX:DATA AND METHODOLOGY 25 ABBREVIATIONS AND ENDNOTES 26ABOUT OXFORD ECONOMICS 273HINRICH FOUNDATION REPORT THE TRUMP EFFECT:HOW THE US AND CHINA ARE DRIVING FACTORY ASIAS FDI EVOLUTIONBy Oxford EconomicsAsias FDI networks have been surprisingly resilient in

5、 Trump 2.0Acceleratingupheavalinabroadsweepoftradeandinvestmentpolicychangesworldwide,PresidentDonaldTrumpssecondtermhastriggeredasharpreversalintheglobalexpansionplansofmanymultinationalenterprises.Globalgreenfieldforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)inindustrialsectorsfellby31.1%year-on-yearinthesixmonthsf

6、ollowingLiberationDay(AprilSeptember2025),adeepercontractionthanduringtheCOVID-19trough(-26.0%).Thisreflectswidespreadprojectfreezesamidescalatingpolicyuncertainty.Inaworldwheremuchwaslostthisyear,somelostlessthanothers.Despitefacingsomeofthehighest“reciprocal”tariffsanddeepesttradeexposuretotheUS,A