OpenAI：2026人工智能与国际安全：影响路径与关键不确定性研究报告（英文版）（18页）.pdf

1、AI and International SecurityPathways of Impact and Key UncertaintiesJason Pruet,Anna Makanju,Jonathan Reiber,and Josh AchiamOpenAIFebruary 6,2026AbstractArtificial Intelligence will reshape international security and the balance of power among nations.The most significant changes are associated wit

2、h the ways that AI enhances or threatens principalfunctions of statecraft.We examine these effects across three dimensions:deterrence and theprojection of force;the resources supporting national power;and the ability of states to understandand adapt to a dynamic strategic environment.This analysis d

3、raws on interviews with seniornationalsecurityleaders,whichprovidedinsightsintotheimplicationsofAIandhowthetechnologyis viewed.A central theme of these discussions is deep technical uncertainty.Future characteristicsof AI remain sufficiently unclear that they admit radically different,and often inco

4、mpatible,visionsof the security landscape.We identify the most important of these uncertainties.Efforts by the AIcommunity to reduce these critical gaps in understanding will strengthen the ability of nationalleaders to shape policy for global stability.These efforts will also help technology compan

5、ies betterunderstand the broader implications of AI,improving their ability to make responsible decisionsfor the design and deployment of increasingly powerful systems.1IntroductionWe wrote this paper amid three converging trends:a rapid growth in global investment to harness the power ofadvanced AI

6、,a commensurate increase in attention to AIs potential impacts,and a generational change in thecharacter of conflict 13.Within the large AI companies,much of the focus has been on the challenges of alignment,safety,and broad access for beneficial applications 4,5.In public discourse focused on natio